Iranian officials have been evacuated from Pakistan under military escort, according to two Pakistani government sources. The “Iran coup attempt by June 30” market currently sits at 12.5% YES.
The evacuation is likely to affect the Iran coup attempt market, which has climbed from 10% a week ago. With 67 days left for this market to resolve, heightened instability and internal dissent could push odds higher.
The Reza Pahlavi entry market is largely unchanged at 6.5% YES. The Iran military action by April 30 market remains locked at 100% YES, meaning traders see no deviation from expected actions in the immediate term.
Trading volume in the coup attempt market is at $8,650 in actual USDC daily, with only $4,108 needed to move the price 5 points. That thin liquidity means moderate capital can cause real price swings. The largest recent move was a 2-point spike, showing how even small orders move this market.
At 12.5% YES, a coup attempt bet pays $1 for a 12.5¢ investment, an 8x return for those betting on further instability.
Watch for IRGC leadership shifts, Artesh mobilizations, and signs of dissent within Iran’s power structures. These would either validate or collapse the current coup attempt odds.
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Iran Coup Attempt June 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 12.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 15.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |