Senior Iranian MP Ali Nikzad stated that the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-war conditions. The odds of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 15 have dropped to 14.5%, down from 20% yesterday.
Market reaction
The Strait of Hormuz traffic by May 15 market fell sharply after Nikzad’s comments. Only $4,658 is needed to shift the market by 5 percentage points, a sign of thin liquidity. The announcement of a US blockade lift by May 31 also fell, now at 54.5%, down from 72% yesterday.
Why it matters
Nikzad’s statement signals that Iran does not expect a return to normal shipping conditions, which makes a US announcement lifting the blockade less likely in the near term. The current fragile ceasefire and ongoing blockades from both sides point away from a swift resolution, and traders are pricing that in.
What to watch
The Hormuz traffic market had $36,459 in actual USDC daily turnover, showing continued trader interest even as odds thin out. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a minor 2-point spike, consistent with the overall bearish direction. A YES share in traffic returning to normal by May 15 is priced at 15¢, offering a potential 6.67x return. For that bet to pay off, a major diplomatic breakthrough would need to happen within 21 days. Watch for any shifts in US-Iran negotiations or military activity, particularly announcements from CENTCOM or the Iranian Foreign Ministry.
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Trump Announces Us Blockade Of Hormuz Lifted| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 54.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15 | 14.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.2% | — | — | Trade → |
