More than 40 Iranian lawmakers called continuing US negotiations without unfreezing Iranian assets a “mistake.” The chances of Trump agreeing to Iranian demands in April sit at 60.5% YES, up from 28% a week ago.
The Iranian demands are moving several prediction markets. The Trump agreement market sits at 60.5% YES, with $1,977 in actual USDC traded daily and a $286 cost to move the odds by 5 points. The asset unfreezing demand is a hard barrier to any agreement being reached this month.
The likelihood of no qualifying US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 is at 2.1% YES, with $408 needed to move odds 5 points and only $104 in actual USDC traded daily. That thin volume means the price is easy to push around.
The Iran uranium enrichment agreement market is at 47.1% YES, up from 10% a week ago. Traders appear uncertain whether Iran will concede on enrichment without a resolution on asset unfreezing first.
Liquidity varies across these markets. The Trump agreement market has $7,909 in actual USDC across all sub-markets, moderate interest but thin enough that $286 can swing the odds 5 points. The uranium enrichment market trades $23,824 daily, more liquid but still susceptible to large orders.
The lawmakers’ statement hardens Iran’s negotiation stance, which directly complicates any deal timeline. At 36¢, a YES share on Trump’s agreement pays $1 if resolved, a 2.78x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe Trump will make significant concessions within two weeks.
Watch for official statements from the White House and Iranian officials. Any shift in language or policy on asset unfreezing or sanctions could move these markets fast.
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What Will The Us Agree To| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 60.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 2.3% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 47.1% | — | — | Trade → |