An Iranian fighter jet bombed Camp Buehring in Kuwait, penetrating US air defenses during Operation Epic Fury. The market for a US declaration of war on Iran by December 31, 2026, is at 7.5% YES, down from 8% yesterday.
Market reaction
The strike occurred during Operation Epic Fury, the ongoing US-Israeli campaign against Iran. The US Forces Enter Iran market remains inactive with no recent trades. The US declaration of war market moved from 8% to 7.5% YES, a slight decline despite the attack.
Volume in the declaration of war market was $321 in real USDC over the last 24 hours. The order book requires $2,998 to move the price 5 points, which shows solid depth. No significant price move in the last day; traders appear cautious even after the escalation.
Why it matters
The Iranian jet’s penetration of US air defenses directly challenges assumptions about American air superiority in the region. This could push US policymakers toward more aggressive military responses, including ground operations. Buying YES at 7.5¢ pays $1 if Congress declares war, a 13.3x return. That risk sits against an 8-month timeline and ongoing diplomatic engagements.
What to watch
Statements from CENTCOM or Congress that signal a strategic shift. Upcoming Pentagon briefings on whether military options are being escalated.
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Which Countries Will Conduct Military Action Against Iran April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.2% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 7.5% | — | — | View market → |
| April 30, 2026 | 0.1% | — | — | View market → |
