Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf declared Iranian armed forces remain “ready” amid ongoing US peace talks. The odds of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 sit at 25.5% YES, down from 40% yesterday.
Market reaction
Ghalibaf’s statement coincided with a sharp decline in the April 22 peace deal market. The April 30 market also fell, now at 46% YES. The term structure shows traders expect a major catalyst between April 30 and May 31, with a 21-point jump within that window.
Trading volume at $1,644,301 in USDC over the last 24 hours. It takes $9,404 to move the April 22 market 5 percentage points, which points to real liquidity. The most notable single price move was a 5-point drop at 5:56 PM, likely a large sell order reacting to the news.
Why it matters
Ghalibaf’s emphasis on military readiness signals that de-escalation is not imminent. Combined with US military posturing and mutual distrust, the chances of a quick diplomatic breakthrough look slim. At 19.5¢, a YES share for an April 22 peace deal pays $1 if it resolves, a 5.13x return. That bet requires belief in an unexpected diplomatic leap within four days.
What to watch
Any official announcements from Trump or Iranian leaders, especially regarding concrete steps toward a deal. A surprise agreement or the naming of a mediator could shift odds fast.
API access
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Us X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 25.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 46% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 63% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 69.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 36.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 64.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 51.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 12.7% | — | — | Trade → |
