Iranian embassies in the West are recruiting for a “sacrificing life” campaign amid conflict with the US and Israel, and the Iran coup attempt by June 30 market has jumped to 12.5% YES, up from 12% just 24 hours ago. A separate market on Iran’s leadership status by end of 2026 now sits at 15% YES.
Odds for Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by December 31 have also moved sharply, now at 16% YES compared to 14% yesterday. The June 30 Pahlavi entry market has spiked to 7.0% YES, with traders pricing his return as near-certain.
Traders are reading the embassy recruitment as a sign of Iran’s heightened conflict posture and increased internal instability. The shift from covert operations to overt mobilization raises the probability of direct regime challenges.
The Iran coup attempt market trades at $63,231 in face value but only $8,650 in actual USDC, meaning it can be moved easily. The largest move was a 2-point spike at 5:18 PM. Only $4,108 is needed to move the price five points, so any large bet could swing this market substantially. At current levels, buying YES at 12.5¢ pays $1 if a coup occurs, a 2.08x return.
Watch for statements from the IRGC and Assembly of Experts, and any public appearances by key Iranian figures. These will be the clearest indicators of consolidation or further destabilization.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Iran Coup Attempt June 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 12.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 7% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 16% | — | — | Trade → |
