Iran’s armed forces have warned the US against renewed aggression, raising fears of wider conflict. The probability of Iran’s military action against Israel by April 30 sits at 100% YES.
Market reaction
The market for Iranian regime fall by June 30 has moved to 8.5% YES, up from 8% yesterday. The Iran military action against Israel market is priced at certainty for a strike before month-end, with no movement in odds. Zero deviation in the face value means traders are locked in on this expectation following recent US-Israeli operations targeting Iran.
Why it matters
The Iranian regime market has daily volume at $35,587 in actual USDC traded, with $16,830 required to move the market 5 points. The largest recent move was a 1-point spike, indicating cautious positioning. Iran’s warning complicates the already fragile ceasefire brokered by Pakistan. The end-2026 market for Iran’s head of state change shows no current odds, which suggests traders treat leadership change as a longer-term possibility.
What to watch
Developments from US envoys in Pakistan and any shifts in Iranian military posturing are the main indicators for market movements in the coming days.
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Will The Iranian Regime Fall June 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
