Iran’s FARS news agency warned of full-force retaliation if the current ceasefire collapses. The US x Iran ceasefire by April 21 market sits at 17% YES.
The April 22 market moved to 26.5% YES, up from 12% a week ago. The April 30 odds climbed to 44.5% YES, suggesting traders expect any resolution to take longer.
The Iran military action against Israel by April 30 market remains at 100% YES. Trading volume there is negligible, which points to settled consensus rather than active speculation.
Trading volume for the ceasefire market is $699,190 in USDC over the last 24 hours. The order book shows $16,401 is needed to move the April 22 market 5 percentage points, indicating moderate liquidity. The largest move was a 4-point spike at 12:18 AM.
Iran’s threat adds strain on already tense ceasefire negotiations. At 8¢, a YES share for an April 21 ceasefire pays $1 if it happens, a 12.5x return. That bet requires confidence in a sudden diplomatic breakthrough within five days.
Watch for statements from CENTCOM or shifts in naval posture. The next Pentagon briefing could signal US strategic adjustments that move these markets.
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Iran Military Action Against April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 17% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 26.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 44.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 61.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 69.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 2.8% | — | — | Trade → |
