Iran’s vice president announced plans to pursue US-Israel attacks on scientific centers in international forums. The likelihood of the Iranian regime having no head of state by the end of 2026 sits at 21.5% YES, while odds for a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 have dropped to 6.9% YES.
Market reaction
The Iran Leadership Status market is at 21.5% YES. The US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 market fell to 6.9% YES, down from 20% just 24 hours ago.
Why it matters
The drop in nuclear deal odds from 20% to 6.9% in a single day signals that traders read Iran’s decision to pursue international legal action as a hardening of positions, not a diplomatic opening. With only 7 days until the April 30 resolution date, the current conflict appears to have crowded out any space for negotiation.
What to watch
The leadership status market has zero face value traded in the past 24 hours, meaning thin liquidity and high volatility risk on any meaningful order. The nuclear deal market saw $11,881 in USDC traded, with $2,254 in order book depth needed to move the price 5 points, so a single large trade could swing the price substantially.
For contrarian traders, buying YES at 6.9¢ offers a 14.5x payout if a deal is announced by April 30. That bet requires believing in a rapid diplomatic reversal during active hostilities.
Key triggers: any US State Department or Iranian government statements on negotiations, and the Assembly of Experts’ next move regarding Iran’s head of state, which could move both markets.
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Where Will The Next Us Iran Diplomatic Meeting Happen 455| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 8.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 7% | — | — | Trade → |
