Iran’s Deputy Minister of Defense announced that passage through the Strait of Hormuz will follow Islamic Republic protocols after the war. The market for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 15 is at 59.5% YES, up from 20% just a day ago.
Market reaction
The 40-point jump in 24 hours follows Iran’s statement, which traders are reading as a signal of controlled reopening during the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis. General Michael Kurilla and other key players remain involved as negotiations continue. Daily volume on the traffic market is at $36,459 in USDC. It takes $4,658 to shift the price by 5 points, indicating a moderately robust order book. The largest recent move was a 2-point spike at 3:48 PM, showing how reactive this market is to news flow.
Why it matters
Iran’s framing of “Islamic Republic protocols” means any reopening would come on Iranian terms, not as a return to pre-crisis status quo. The distinction matters for resolution: the contract asks whether traffic returns to normal, and regulated passage may or may not qualify depending on how the market’s resolution criteria define that.
What to watch
The two clearest catalysts are US blockades lifting and confirmed mine clearances. CENTCOM updates and Iranian Foreign Ministry announcements will directly affect whether the May 15 deadline looks realistic. A YES share at 60¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 1.67x return.
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Strait Of Hormuz Traffic Returns To Normal May 15| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15 | 59.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 50% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 99% | — | — | Trade → |
