Iran plans to charge ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz in its local currency, the rial. The market for 80 ships transiting on any single day by April 30 sits at 1% YES, down from 4% just a day ago.
The rial payment requirement adds a financial hurdle for shippers and will likely deter traffic. With only six days left, the chances of 80 ships transiting on a single day by April 30 are slim. This market has dropped from 51% a week ago to 1% today as operational barriers have mounted.
The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by May 15 market remains at 20% YES, unchanged from yesterday. This market has more significant volume, trading $36,459 in actual USDC. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a 2-point spike, suggesting some traders are betting on a resolution before that deadline.
Requiring payment in rials or alternatives like yuan bypasses US sanctions but complicates logistics and increases costs for operators, making traffic normalization less likely. The order book in the April 30 market is thin: just $542 is needed to move the price 5 points, meaning even modest trades could cause significant swings.
The contrarian play is buying YES at 1¢ for a 100x return. For that to pay off, a diplomatic breakthrough would need to happen within six days to ease passage.
Watch for announcements from the IRGC or Iranian officials, and any changes in US or international maritime policies. Either could shift the odds sharply if they signal eased restrictions.
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Will Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz On Any Day End Of April| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15 | 20.5% | — | — | Trade → |
