An Iranian lawmaker tied commercial shipping access through the Strait of Hormuz to a US retreat and ceasefire acceptance in Lebanon. The market for the UK sending warships through the Strait by April 30, 2026, sits at 11% YES, down from 12% a week ago.
The UK warships market has dropped by more than half in a week as expectations of British military presence in the Strait fade. Meanwhile, the market for a diplomatic meeting between Trump and Iran is at 25.6% YES.
Trading volume in the warship market is $2,086 in USDC per day, with only $478 needed to move the price 5 percentage points. The market is thin enough that a single large order could shift the odds. The largest move in the past 24 hours was a 1-point drop.
Iran allowing commercial ships through the Strait is a step toward de-escalation, but not full normalization. Iran continues to collect tolls on transiting vessels, which means it still holds leverage over the waterway. Any reversal on commercial access, or new military deployments by the UK or France, could quickly reprice these markets.
Watch for statements from Ali Khamenei and the UK Ministry of Defence. New announcements on naval deployments or diplomatic contacts between Western governments and Tehran are the most likely catalysts for movement.
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Which Countries Will Send Warships Through The Strait Of Hormuz April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 11% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 12 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 25.7% | — | — | Trade → |
