Iran has released footage of Operation True Promise 4 and threatened to target Zionist embassies if attacked. The probability of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 sits at 14% YES, up from 12% yesterday but down from 20% a week ago.
The footage and threats highlight Iran’s military capability and leadership stability. The June 30 market shows a slight increase but remains lower than last week. With 88 days left, the significant drop over the week suggests traders are reassessing expectations of regime stability under Mojtaba Khamenei’s leadership.
Trade volume is at $59,602 in USDC daily, with $195,747 needed to shift the odds by 5 points. This indicates a well-capitalized market resistant to rapid swings from small trades. The largest recent price move was a modest 1-point spike at 7:21 PM.
Iran’s military actions and threats to expand targets beyond military sites support the perception of regime cohesion. A YES share at 14¢ pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30 — a potential 7x return. Traders betting on regime collapse need to foresee major internal fractures or international intervention within the next three months.
Watch for IRGC movements and statements from the Assembly of Experts. Any sign of internal dissent or unexpected public appearances by Mojtaba Khamenei could significantly shift the odds.
Markets Impacted
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — currently 13.5% YES
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