Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz if the current naval blockade persists. The April 22 peace deal market now sits at 29.5% YES, up from 12% a week ago.
Ghalibaf’s statement comes amid ongoing hostilities and a fragile ceasefire. The April 30 market is at 43.5% YES, with traders pricing in a higher chance of some progress before month’s end. The biggest jump between April 30 and May 31 suggests traders expect a catalyst in early May.
In the Hormuz blockade market, May 31 odds remain at 87% YES, but Ghalibaf’s threat introduces uncertainty about the path to lifting it. The April 19 market is at 18% YES, with traders skeptical of any immediate resolution.
The peace deal market trades $711,138 in actual USDC across its sub-markets, with order book depth suggesting moderate liquidity. At 15¢ per YES share, the April 22 market offers a potential 6.67x return, but that payout depends on a diplomatic breakthrough within days. Ghalibaf’s rhetoric points toward worsening relations, not a quick resolution.
Traders should watch for official statements from Trump, shifts in naval deployments, or mediation efforts from Pakistan. The next Pentagon briefing or any indication of resumed talks could move these markets sharply.
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Us X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 29.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 43.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 63.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 73% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 87% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 17 | 1.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
