Iran’s National Security Commission head threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, and the odds of Trump announcing a ceasefire breach by April 21 sit at 9% YES.
Market reaction
The odds for Trump announcing the ceasefire end by April 21 are at 11.5% YES, down from 30% a week ago. With five days until resolution, the drop suggests traders view the Hormuz threat as bluster rather than a genuine trigger for ceasefire collapse.
The ceasefire breach market trades at $19,342/day face value, with YES odds falling from 33% seven days ago. The order book requires $2,103 to move the market five points, so it’s not easily pushed by small trades. The ceasefire end market sees $61,153/day in face value and requires $1,700 to shift five points.
Why it matters
A Hormuz closure threat directly challenges the temporary peace, but the source carries a tier-3 classification, which limits how much weight traders should assign it. At 9¢, buying YES on the ceasefire breach pays $1 if Trump announces it by April 21, a potential 11x return. That payout only makes sense if you expect a real escalation within five days.
What to watch
White House and Pentagon communications are the key signals here. Trump’s Truth Social posts or statements from Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt would be the most likely channels for any shift in ceasefire status. Any change in official language around Iran moves these markets fast given the thin order books.
API access
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Trump Announces Us X Iran Ceasefire Broken| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 8% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2026 | 11.5% | — | — | Trade → |
