Iran’s military says it struck over 40 strategic targets in Israel; the Polymarket contract on Iranian military action by April 30 sits at 100% YES.
With Iran’s spokesperson announcing extensive strikes on Israeli targets, traders have fully priced in Iranian military action against Israel by April 30. The odds are locked at 100% YES, and the market’s term structure shows a consistent 100% probability across all sub-markets. Traders treat further strikes as inevitable within the next 12 days.
The market for Israeli military action against Iran by April 21 is more volatile, currently at 14.4% YES. This suggests traders expect Israel’s response to be more measured or delayed, possibly because of diplomatic considerations or shifts in military strategy. The contract spiked 7 points in a single move earlier, so while the probability is low, traders are not dismissing it.
Iran’s claim of hitting over 40 targets signals both capacity and willingness to sustain pressure on Israel. The 100% odds for Iranian action by April 30 represent full market consensus on continued aggression, with no de-escalation priced in. The gap between the two contracts (100% for Iranian strikes vs. 14.4% for an Israeli response by April 21) captures the asymmetry traders see in the conflict’s near-term trajectory.
Key things to watch: statements from the US or other international actors, any ceasefire proposals, and shifts in Israeli military posture. A confirmed Israeli retaliatory strike would likely move the April 21 contract sharply higher.
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Israel Military Action Against Iran 167| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 15.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
