Iran skips US talks, ending ceasefire negotiations and lowering market optimism

By Estefano Gomez · Published April 3, 2026 · 2 min read · Source: Crypto Briefing

by Estefano Gomez · 20 min ago

Iran’s decision to skip talks with the US in Islamabad has ended plans for ceasefire discussions. The market for a ceasefire by April 7 is now at 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday.

The market shows widespread pessimism. April 7 is at 1%. April 15 is at 6%, down from 8%, and April 30 has dropped to 18% from 24%. Longer-term markets like May 31 and June 30 also show declines, indicating skepticism about near-term diplomacy.

Trading shows strong liquidity, with $443,613 in USDC traded across ceasefire markets in 24 hours. Moving the price 5 points requires $13,188 for April 7 and $45,090 for April 15, reflecting varying trader confidence. The largest recent move was a 2-point drop on May 31, highlighting sensitivity to developments.

Iran’s refusal suggests a hardline stance against US proposals. Current odds make ceasefire bets long shots. At 1¢, a YES share for April 7 pays $1 if resolved, a 100x return unlikely without major diplomatic changes. The market expects continued hostilities, making YES bets high-risk.

Watch for signals like intermediary activity from Oman or Qatar, or policy shifts from the US or Iran. CENTCOM’s statements or changes in White House rhetoric could impact markets.

Markets Impacted

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES

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Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Term Structure

Contract	Odds	Δ since publish	Volume 24h
April 7	1.1%	0.0¢	$1.4M	Trade →
April 15	6.5%	0.0¢	$749K	Trade →
April 30	17.5%	0.0¢	$942K	Trade →
May 31	36.5%	0.0¢	$390K	Trade →
June 30	51.5%	0.0¢	$142K	Trade →
December 31	68.5%	0.0¢	$102K	Trade →

Source

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