Iran has signaled it might allow ships to sail through Oman’s side of the Strait of Hormuz without interference, per Reuters. The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market is now at 15% YES, up roughly 15 points.
Market reaction
The safe passage proposal has pushed the contract higher, but overall volume shows no significant uptick. USDC volume remains low, and there are no large orders on the book. Traders appear to be waiting for confirmation from Iran or Oman before committing real size.
Why it matters
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly a fifth of global oil transit. Iran offering unimpeded passage through Omani waters would represent a concrete step toward de-escalation, not just rhetoric. At 15% YES, a winning share pays $1 on a 15¢ cost, a 6.67x return. But the contract expires at the end of April, leaving only 14 days for traffic to actually normalize. Traders need to believe meaningful progress happens within that window for the bet to make sense.
What to watch
Announcements from Iran’s Foreign Ministry and any shift in the IRGC’s stance on naval operations. Statements from major shipping lines like Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd about their Persian Gulf operations would be the clearest signal that the proposed safe passage is translating into changed behavior on the water.
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