Iran’s first Hajj teams have arrived in Medina, and the probability of an Iranian regime fall by April 30 has dropped to 0.4% YES, down from 1% yesterday.
The arrival follows Iran and Saudi Arabia signing an agreement for the 2026 Hajj pilgrimage, a step toward normalization between the two countries amid ongoing regional conflict. The Iranian regime fall by May 31 market also moved lower, now at 3.9% YES, down from 5% a day ago. The term structure shows a modest 4-point increase from April 30 to May 31, which points to limited expectations for near-term upheaval.
The Iran military action by April 30 market remains static at 100% YES, though this appears to reflect stale pricing rather than active conviction: zero face value has traded in the last 24 hours.
Total USDC volume in the regime fall markets is $42,064. It takes $15,539 to move the regime fall price by 5 points, meaning these markets are relatively thick for their size and less prone to being pushed around by small trades.
The dispatch of Hajj teams, combined with a Jewish community gathering in Tehran, points to a calculated Iranian move toward de-escalation, which reduces the near-term likelihood of regime change. At 4¢, a YES share on the April 30 regime fall pays $1 if the regime falls, a long shot given current signals.
Watch for ceasefire announcements or new diplomatic engagements that could move these markets further. The next key indicator is any confirmation of extended ceasefire talks or high-level meetings involving the US, Iran, and Saudi Arabia.
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Iran Leadership Change| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 38.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 4% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 15.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 3.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
