Panama’s Foreign Ministry called Iran’s recent seizures of vessels in the Strait of Hormuz a “grave attack against maritime security.” The market on whether the UK will send warships through the strait by April 30, 2026, is at 2.6% YES.
Iran’s action raises the probability that international naval forces, including the UK, might deploy to the strait. The odds for UK warships are low but could rise if tensions continue. The market dropped from 10% to 2.6% over the past 24 hours. Sub-markets for potential deployments by Canada, India, Pakistan, and France sit at the same price, suggesting traders see similar odds of a military response across these countries.
Combined daily trading volume is $62,442, with actual USDC traders spending $3,668. It would take only $200 to shift the odds by 5 percentage points, which means a single large order could move the market significantly. The largest recent movement was a 2-point drop coinciding with the news release.
Panama’s condemnation signals international concern but doesn’t point to immediate military deployment. A YES share at 3¢ would pay $1 if resolved YES, a 33x return.
Watch for UK Ministry of Defence statements or allied naval movements near the strait. Any confirmation of warship deployments could sharply move market odds.
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Iran Coup Attempt June 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 12.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 2.6% | — | — | Trade → |
