Iran has seized ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump has given Tehran days to return to talks. The market for Trump announcing the lifting of the Hormuz blockade by May 31 sits at 74% YES, down from 82% yesterday.
The seizure has moved both the US-Iran ceasefire end market and Trump’s Hormuz blockade announcement market. Ceasefire odds are expected to rise as tensions increase, while the likelihood of lifting the blockade has fallen. The Hormuz blockade market dropped 8 points in a single day.
Trading volume for the Hormuz blockade market is at $27,582 in actual USDC. It takes $8,549 to move the price 5 points, making the market moderately liquid. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a 3-point drop at 5:36 AM, pointing to sustained selling pressure.
The ship seizures make a diplomatic resolution harder to reach. Traders are hedging against further escalation, which explains the drop in odds for lifting the blockade. At 26¢, NO shares pay 3.8x if the blockade remains through May 31.
Watch for statements from Trump or Iranian leadership over the next few days. Any announcement of new talks or a shift in rhetoric from either side could move these markets sharply.
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