Iran’s security council has unified on war decisions, according to a government minister. The odds for an Iranian leadership change by December 31 sit at 0%, reflecting reinforced regime stability.
The reported unity within Iran’s security council bears directly on regime change markets, pointing toward a lower probability of political upheaval. The Iran leadership change market shows no movement, with traders pricing in little chance of Mojtaba Khamenei losing his grip on power. The Iranian regime fall by April 30 is priced at 0.1% YES, while May 31 is slightly higher at 3% YES. The gap between April and May suggests some expectation of volatility, but not soon.
Trading volume reflects cautious engagement. The “fall of the Iranian regime” market sees $25,700 in daily USDC volume, with $4,621 required to move the price by 5 points. The market isn’t easily swayed by small trades.
For traders, this news reinforces the status quo. At 3¢ for May, a YES share pays $1 if the regime falls, a 33.3x return. Betting on regime change would require belief in significant destabilizing events within the next 32 days.
Watch for shifts in rhetoric from Iranian officials or unusual IRGC movements. Either could signal changing dynamics within the regime that affect these odds.
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Trump Announces End Of Military Operations Against Iran| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.1% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.1% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 3.1% | — | — | View market → |
