Iran has declared that transferring enriched uranium has never been an option, and the market for the U.S. obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31 sits at 0% YES.
This statement directly affects the U.S. obtaining Iranian enriched uranium market, where odds are effectively zero. The April 30 uranium surrender market is at 35.7% YES, down from 65% just 24 hours ago, a 34-point collapse as traders repriced the near-term likelihood. The June 30 market is at 44.5% YES, suggesting traders still see a possibility of a deal on a longer timeline.
The April 30 sub-market dropped 12 points, with traders clearly skeptical about any resolution before that deadline. The December 31 market at 65.5% YES shows that longer-term expectations for a deal haven’t collapsed the same way. The April 30 market’s order book requires just $1,635 to move 5 points, making it highly reactive to new information.
Trading volume hit $214,241 in USDC over 24 hours. The largest single move was the 12-point drop in the April 30 market. With that thin order book, a single large trader could still shift odds substantially.
Iran’s statement makes an imminent deal look unlikely, with the April 30 deadline just 12 days away. Buying YES at 35.7¢ pays 3.23x if resolved, but that would require a diplomatic breakthrough in under two weeks from a starting point of public denial.
Watch for IAEA statements, U.S. administration responses, or any reported negotiations through intermediaries like Oman. Any of these could move the thin April 30 book sharply in either direction.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 35.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 65.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 44.5% | — | — | Trade → |
