Iran is reviewing US proposals while publicly maintaining a hardline stance, claiming no intention to compromise. The likelihood of a ceasefire breach by April 21 is at 17.5%, up from 8% yesterday.
Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir is mediating, keeping communication lines open between the two sides. Iran’s public posturing aside, Islamabad’s involvement means a diplomatic channel still exists. The April 21 market climbed from 8% to 17.5% in 24 hours, showing increased trader skepticism about immediate conflict resolution.
The largest single price spike was a 3-point jump at 11:12 AM, moving from 14% to 18%. This market trades at $3,485 daily in actual USDC, with only $498 needed to move the price 5 percentage points. It’s a thin market, vulnerable to shifts from modest trades.
Ongoing engagement through Pakistan lowers the chance of a ceasefire breakdown. But the thin liquidity means even minor developments can cause swings. Buying YES at 17.5¢ offers a potential 5.7x return if resolved by April 21, but that hinges on significant negative developments within three days.
Watch for statements from US or Iranian officials that could shift the situation. Pakistan’s continued mediation, and any new proposals or negotiations, will directly affect this market.
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Trump Announces Us X Iran Ceasefire Broken| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 4.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 13.5% | — | — | Trade → |
