Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced Tehran is reviewing President Trump’s request for negotiations. The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April sits at 3.4% YES, down from 14% yesterday.
Market reaction
The sanction relief market has collapsed from 62% a week ago to its current level. Traders are pricing in almost no chance of quick U.S. concessions on oil sanctions. The market’s largest move was an 8-point spike, likely driven by a single large order rather than sustained buying.
The market on the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting location shows a 16.7% chance of no meeting occurring by June 30, up from 9% yesterday. Trading volume there is $6,837 in USDC.
Why it matters
At 3.4% YES for oil sanction relief in April, the market is treating Araghchi’s announcement as diplomatic noise rather than a signal of real movement. The gap between Iran publicly “reviewing” Trump’s request and traders pricing relief at near-zero tells you how little credibility the market assigns to a deal this month.
What to watch
At 17¢, buying YES on no qualifying diplomatic meeting pays 5.9x, but that bet requires continued diplomatic stalemate through June 2026. Watch for official confirmations of scheduled meetings or concessions. Statements from the White House, Iranian Foreign Ministry, or intermediaries like Oman could move these odds quickly.
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What Will The Us Agree To| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 3.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 16.7% | — | — | Trade → |
