The first group of Iranian pilgrims arrived in Medina on April 25, resuming Hajj travel to Saudi Arabia. The Polymarket contract on UK military action against Iran by April 30 sits at 0.9% YES.
The UK strike on Iran by April 30 market is flat at 0.9% YES, down from 2% a day ago. Other countries’ military action sub-markets mirror this, all sitting at 0.9% YES. Traders are skeptical about any imminent escalation.
The resumption of pilgrimages is a concrete step toward normalization between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which could reduce geopolitical risk premiums on oil. The crude oil all-time high by April 30 market is at 1.1% YES. That said, ongoing US military deployments in the region keep a baseline of tension in place.
Total USDC trading volume across the military action markets is just $132. It takes only $126 to move the UK strike market by 5 points, which means any single large order could cause an abrupt shift. At current odds, buying YES at 0.9¢ offers a 111x return, but that bet requires believing in a major escalation within six days. The pilgrimage resumption points one direction; the US military presence under President Trump points another.
Watch for US military announcements or diplomatic developments between Iran and regional actors. A formal peace initiative or a new deployment order could move these thin markets fast.
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Which Countries Will Conduct Military Action Against Iran April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.1% | — | — | Trade → |
