Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz is open, with oil tankers back in action. The probability of Trump lifting the US blockade by May 31 sits at 90% YES.
The Strait’s reopening has pushed up the odds of Trump announcing the end of the blockade. The May 31 market at 90% YES reflects expectations that ongoing U.S.-Iran talks could produce a deal. The April 19 market lags at 17.5% YES, showing skepticism about an immediate breakthrough. That 64-point gap between April 19 and May 31 suggests traders expect a key catalyst somewhere in that window.
The Strait’s reopening is a positive signal, but actual USDC volume tells a more cautious story. The May 31 market trades $5,868/day in USDC, with $3,730 required to move it 5 percentage points — enough to show institutional interest but far from overwhelming consensus. The April 19 market costs just $257 to move 5 points, meaning even small shifts in sentiment could swing those shorter-term odds hard.
The reopening is a step toward de-escalation, but the U.S. blockade remains until a final deal is signed. Iran’s move reads as tentative cooperation, not a resolution. At 8.5¢, a YES share on April 17 pays $1, a long-shot bet that requires a rapid diplomatic breakthrough. Traders are pricing resolution closer to May 31, which tracks with the typical pace of negotiation and the likely timeline for U.S. responses.
Watch for announcements from the White House or Pentagon confirming any changes to blockade status. Comments from Abbas Araghchi or Steve Witkoff could also move these markets.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 90% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 17 | 2.3% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
