Iran released footage of commandos seizing ships in the Strait of Hormuz while Trump has not commented on next steps. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 market sits at 14% YES, down from 18% yesterday.
Market reaction
The April 30 peace deal market dropped 4 points as traders priced in lower odds of near-term diplomacy. The May 31 market saw a steeper decline, now at 36% YES, down from 52%. The June 30 contract holds at 56% YES, though it also fell from 64%.
Why it matters
The video did not move the US-Iran ceasefire end market, which suggests traders read this as a longer-term strategic signal rather than an immediate conflict trigger. Trump’s silence adds a layer of uncertainty, and markets are pricing in the possibility of sudden, unpredictable moves.
Combined face value across these contracts is $4.5M, but actual USDC traded was just $433K, and it takes roughly $20K to move prices 5 points. That gap points to thin conviction behind recent moves. The largest swing was a 4-point spike yesterday that faded quickly, consistent with hesitant positioning.
What to watch
At 14¢, a YES share on the April 30 contract pays $1 if resolved, a 7.1x return. That payout requires rapid de-escalation within roughly a week. Any statement from Trump, Abbas Araghchi, or Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, whether a tweet or press conference, could move these odds sharply.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 13.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 36.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 56.5% | — | — | Trade → |
