Iranian presidential spokesperson Seyyed Mohammad Mehdi Tabatabaei denounced Trump’s claim that Iran agreed not to close the Strait of Hormuz. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 market sits at 45% YES.
Trump’s statement and Iran’s swift rebuttal have traders reevaluating peace deal odds. The April 22 market is at 45% YES, the April 30 market at 67% YES, and the May 31 date at 76.5% YES, with a 24-point jump in the past week.
USDC volume is $267,520 and $179,244 for the April markets. Order book depth requires over $16K to move the April 22 market by 5 points, which points to institutional positioning rather than retail-driven volatility.
Iran’s rejection of Trump’s claim signals ongoing distrust and weighs on short-term sentiment. At 14¢, a YES share pays $1 if the April 22 peace deal happens, a 7.14x return. Buying YES here means betting on a diplomatic breakthrough within 6 days.
Watch for statements from US or Iranian officials that clarify or escalate the situation. Any explicit peace agreement announcement would matter most, especially from Abbas Araghchi or Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 45% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 66.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 76.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 84% | — | — | Trade → |
