Iran rejected the temporary ceasefire with the US, insisting on a permanent end to all regional conflicts. The odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 21 are at 8% YES.
The April 21 market remains flat at 8%, while April 22 ticked up to 39% YES. The April 30 market jumped to 61.5% YES, suggesting traders price in better chances for a deal on a longer timeline.
Combined 24-hour USDC volume was $699,190. It takes $16,401 to move the April 22 odds 5 points. The largest single move was a 4-point spike in the April 22 market at 12:18 AM, likely driven by a major order or news catalyst.
Iran’s demand for comprehensive terms rather than a temporary pause means negotiations need to cover sanctions relief, security guarantees, or both before any announcement. At 8¢, a YES share pays $1 if announced by April 21, a 12.5x return. That bet requires believing US-Iran negotiations can produce results within five days.
Watch for upcoming US-Iran talks in Islamabad. Any sign of softened rhetoric or intermediary involvement from Oman or Qatar could move these markets quickly.
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Trump Announces Us X Iran Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2026 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 39% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 61.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 74% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 81.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 63.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 79.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 74.5% | — | — | Trade → |
