JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre says Iran’s economic collapse is closer than ever, but the regime fall by April 30 market has moved to 0.5% YES, down from 1% yesterday.
Eyre’s comments have driven interest in the May 31 market, currently at 3.6% YES. The spread between April 30 and May 31 suggests traders price a higher chance of regime collapse beyond the immediate window. The Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30 market also moved up to 6.5% YES.
The April 30 regime fall market has $9,300 in actual USDC volume, and it would take $34,065 to shift odds by 5 points. The May 31 market is more liquid at $27,933 in actual USDC, requiring only $11,119 for the same shift. The largest 24-hour price movement was a slight uptick in the Pahlavi return market, which remains a long shot.
Eyre’s comments come from a tier-3 source, which limits their weight. His analogy of a wounded state running on adrenaline is stark, but the regime has survived past economic crises. A YES share for regime fall by April 30 trades at 0.5¢, offering a 200x return, a bet on severe destabilization within a week.
Watch for moves by Mojtaba Khamenei and any major defections reported by credible sources. Either would sharply reprice these markets.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Will The Iranian Regime Fall April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 3.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 6% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 41.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 30.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 39.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 13.5% | — | — | Trade → |
