Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf announced that Iran is ready to reveal “new cards” on the battlefield and will not negotiate under threat. The probability of a ceasefire breach announcement by April 21 is at 100% YES.
Ghalibaf’s comments signal potential military escalation and are moving several prediction markets. The April 21 ceasefire breach market is locked at 100%, meaning traders fully expect President Trump to announce a ceasefire breach imminently. The permanent peace deal markets have dropped, with April 22 at 12% YES, down from 16% yesterday.
The permanent peace deal by April 30 sits at 34% YES, down slightly. The biggest shift occurred between April 30 and May 31, with expectations rising 26 points. This suggests traders anticipate a possible catalyst or shift in negotiations after April. The May 31 market is at 59%, showing traders still give a deal better-than-even odds on a longer timeline.
The permanent peace deal markets are active, with volume over $1.1M in USDC daily. Depth varies: $63,331 is required to move the April 22 odds by 5 points. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a 4-point spike, showing real volatility in trader sentiment.
Ghalibaf’s rhetoric points to an entrenched Iranian position. The source is tier 2 news, consistent with a credible threat of escalation. At 12¢, a YES share in the April 22 market offers a potential 8.33x return if a deal materializes. Anyone betting YES there needs to believe in rapid de-escalation within two days.
Watch for Trump’s social media activity or official statements from the White House and Pentagon. Any confirmation of a ceasefire breach or Iranian military action could move these markets further.
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Trump Announces Us X Iran Ceasefire Broken| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 12.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 34.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 58.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 69.5% | — | — | Trade → |
