Iran’s 2026 uprising was quashed in two nights with a massive crackdown. Iranian regime fall by April 30 is at 1% YES, unchanged from yesterday.
The crackdown didn’t budge the April 30 market, which remains flat at 1% YES. The June 30 market sits at 8% YES, down from 10% a week ago. Traders are skeptical of imminent regime collapse despite the turmoil.
Volume points to low conviction. The market sees $6,625 in daily USDC traded, with a $6,561 cost to move odds by five points. Not a thick book. The largest move in the past day was a 1-point drop for June odds, likely a recalibration rather than a conviction shift.
Iran’s brutal suppression may be noise in terms of regime stability. The regime has weathered similar crises without falling. The odds suggest traders expect more of the same. But at 8¢, a YES share for June pays $1 if the regime falls by then, offering a 12.5x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe internal fractures will widen quickly.
Keep an eye on Mojtaba Khamenei’s public appearances and Assembly of Experts activity. Any unexpected moves there could shift the odds.
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Will The Iranian Regime Fall April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 7.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.9% | — | — | Trade → |
