Iran has outlined a three-phase peace plan to end hostilities, as reported by the WSJ. The chance of an Israel-Iran permanent peace deal by June 30 now sits at 9%, down from 24% a week ago.
Odds for a permanent peace deal by April 30 have dropped to 0.9%, while the June 30 contract holds at 9%. The 8-point gap between the two dates suggests traders expect any breakthrough to come after April, if at all.
The likelihood of no qualifying U.S.-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 has risen to 16.8%. Iran’s proposal lacks specific locations or meeting dates, which leaves the diplomatic track without a concrete next step.
Iran’s plan comes with a hard condition: Tehran insists on maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. maintains its blockade. Without concrete commitments from either side on this point, the proposal reads more as a diplomatic opening position than a path to resolution.
For traders, a YES share on the June 30 peace deal is priced at 9¢, with a potential 11x return. That bet requires belief in accelerated talks and resolution within 67 days.
Watch for announcements from intermediaries like Pakistan or Qatar, and statements from Abbas Araghchi or President Trump. Specific dates or venues for talks would be the clearest signals for market movement.
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Israel X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 12.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 16.8% | — | — | Trade → |
