Iran has proposed a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump is receptive to negotiating a deal by phone. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 market sits at 2% YES.
Traders are focused on the June 30 contract, where odds are at 48% YES. The April 30 contract stays low at 2%, showing skepticism about a near-term breakthrough. The May 31 resolution is at 29.5% YES, meaning traders price in some chance of progress but doubt an immediate resolution.
The Iranian demands market for Trump agreeing to oil sanction relief in April is at 3.2% YES, down from 14% yesterday. That drop shows traders don’t expect immediate concessions, even with Trump’s willingness to talk.
Volume in the US-Iran market is at $854,504 in USDC. It takes $27,666 to move odds five points, which indicates real liquidity. The largest move was a six-point spike in the April 30 contract, now fading as traders digest the proposal.
This could easily be noise given previous failed talks. But at 3.2¢, a YES share on Trump agreeing to sanctions relief pays $1 if resolved, a potential 31.25x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe in a rapid diplomatic shift.
Watch for Trump’s Truth Social posts or statements from the Iranian Foreign Ministry. Any confirmation of actual talks or concessions could move these markets fast.
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Israel X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 2.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 29.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 47.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 3.1% | — | — | Trade → |
