Iran has put forward a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, tied to ending the war with the US, according to sources. The market for Trump announcing the blockade is lifted by May 31 sits at 56% YES, down from 72% yesterday.
The proposal separates the maritime crisis from nuclear talks, which could give the US room to maneuver without immediately addressing Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The sub-market resolving May 31 dropped 16 points in a day, showing traders are actively repricing the likelihood of a diplomatic resolution.
The market for a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30 remains at 1% YES. With only six days left, the odds reflect no substantive engagement signals between the two sides.
Daily USDC volume on the blockade market is $95,253, with $8,975 needed to move the price 5 points. That’s real liquidity. The largest recent move was a 5-point spike, suggesting traders are still processing Iran’s proposal. The diplomatic meeting market trades just $613 daily, meaning any real news could swing the odds easily.
Iran’s proposal attempts to decouple the nuclear issue from the maritime crisis, which puts pressure on the US to respond separately. At 56%, a YES share pays $1 if Trump lifts the blockade by May 31, a roughly 1.8x return. For this bet to pay off, the proposal needs to gain traction quickly.
Watch Trump’s Situation Room meeting today and any subsequent statements. A White House endorsement or military adjustment could shift odds fast.
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Trump Announces Us Blockade Of Hormuz Lifted| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 56% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.7% | — | — | Trade → |
