Iran has reportedly offered a proposal to the U.S. to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, contingent on ending hostilities and securing guarantees against future conflicts, per WSJ. Diplomatic meetings with Iran by April 30 sit at 0.8% YES.
Market reaction
The market for diplomatic meetings with Iran has dropped sharply, down from 22% a week ago. Even with Iran’s new proposal, odds sit at 0.8%, which prices in almost no chance of a diplomatic breakthrough before the deadline. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz would be a major de-escalation in a chokepoint that handles roughly a fifth of global oil shipments.
Why it matters
Trading volume in the diplomatic meetings market is thin: $613 in USDC traded over the last 24 hours. It would take just $972 to move the odds by 5 percentage points, making the market volatile on even small trades. The largest move was a 1-point drop, consistent with cautious sentiment despite Iran’s overture.
What to watch
Iran’s proposal opens a possible path toward negotiation, but the odds reflect little confidence in rapid progress. Buying YES at 1¢ offers a theoretical 125x return, but that bet requires a meeting within six days. Watch for announcements from the White House or Iranian officials signaling direct dialogue. A confirmed meeting involving Secretary of State Marco Rubio or U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff would likely move this market fast.
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Iran Coup Attempt June 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 12.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.8% | — | — | Trade → |
