Iran has proposed opening the Strait of Hormuz without a nuclear agreement, and the market on Trump announcing the US blockade lift by May 31 now sits at 60.5% YES.
The May 31 market has dropped from 72% YES just 24 hours ago and from 90% a week ago. Traders still price in a de-escalation as the most likely outcome, but confidence is eroding. The May 15 Strait of Hormuz traffic market fell from 20% yesterday to 14.5% YES, showing skepticism about rapid normalization.
The volume gap between these two markets is worth noting. The Trump blockade market trades $95,253 in daily USDC with $8,975 in depth needed to move the price 5 points, a sign of solid institutional participation. The Hormuz traffic market trades $36,459 daily and requires only $4,658 for a 5-point move, meaning it’s thinner and more volatile.
Iran’s decision to prioritize the Strait’s reopening over nuclear negotiations could represent a genuine de-escalation attempt, separate from the broader nuclear file. At 15¢, YES shares on Hormuz traffic pay $1 if resolved, a 6.67x return. That bet requires confidence in an immediate diplomatic breakthrough, which the market clearly doesn’t share.
Watch for Trump’s public statements and any changes in US naval posture. The next CENTCOM briefing matters. So does any intermediary activity by Oman or Qatar, which could signal that back-channel talks are moving.
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Iran Agrees To End Enrichment Of Uranium April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.3% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 60.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15 | 14.5% | — | — | Trade → |
