Iran has proposed ending attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, lifting the blockade, and delaying nuclear talks. The market on Trump announcing the blockade’s end by May 31 sits at 59.5% YES, down from 72% yesterday.
The Iranian offer could swing the Hormuz blockade market if the US responds favorably. With 37 days left to resolution, daily USDC volume is $95,253 and it takes $8,975 to move the price 5 points. A 5-point spike at 3:50 PM yesterday shows this is a volatile, actively contested contract.
On the nuclear front, the Iran uranium enrichment agreement is priced at just 1% YES, down from 6% yesterday. Iran’s proposal to delay talks drove this drop. With only six days until the April 30 resolution, an agreement is unlikely.
The offer splits the two markets in opposite directions. The delay in nuclear talks killed the enrichment contract, but it leaves the blockade question open. A YES share at 60¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 1.67x return. Traders betting on a US-Iran deal need a rapid response from Washington to justify that price.
Watch Trump’s social media and official statements for any sign of a policy shift. The next Pentagon or CENTCOM briefing could also move the market, particularly if it addresses operational changes in the Strait of Hormuz.
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Trump Announces Us Blockade Of Hormuz Lifted| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 59.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1% | — | — | Trade → |
