A senior Iranian official announced that vessels complying with new Strait of Hormuz protocols will be prioritized. The market on fewer than 10 ships transiting the Strait between April 13-19 sits at 0.4% YES.
Iran’s decision to prioritize vessels that adhere to protocols and pay fees could deter some ships from transiting, pushing against the market’s assumption that traffic will remain above 10 ships. The market for 80 ships transiting by April 30 has dropped to 22.5% YES, down from 51% yesterday.
Iran’s prioritization of compliant vessels reinforces the expectation of prolonged restrictions on Strait traffic. No significant volume change occurred in the past 24 hours, and the market continues to price a low probability of traffic returning to normal by the end of May. The new protocol adds another layer of friction that discourages high-volume transit.
The market’s low actual USDC volume makes it susceptible to small orders. It takes just $12 to move the April 19 odds by 5 percentage points, meaning a single trader can shift the price substantially. Moving the April 30 odds requires $797, which points to stronger conviction among traders about the longer-term outlook. Traders betting on fewer than 10 ships transiting by April 19 at 0.4¢ per YES share could see a 250x return if Iran’s strategy drastically restricts traffic. Given the current geopolitical context and the US naval blockade, that outcome remains unlikely.
Watch for CENTCOM’s response to Iran’s prioritization and any diplomatic developments from the US or regional actors that might change transit dynamics. Statements from Admiral Brad Cooper or shifts in US naval posture could signal changes in enforcement or easing of the blockade.
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How Many Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz This Week Apr 13 19| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 | 0.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 22% | — | — | Trade → |
