Iran is reviewing participation in peace talks with the US, according to a senior Iranian official. The ceasefire-by-April-30 market sits at 40.5% YES, up from 37.5% yesterday.
The US-Iran ceasefire market shows a modest uptick on the news. The permanent peace deal by April 22 sits at 19.5% YES, a sharp drop from 40% yesterday, with only four days left. The April 30 peace deal market is at 42% YES, suggesting traders expect more clarity in the coming week.
The ceasefire market has volume at $80,435 in actual USDC, with $1,566 order book depth for a 5-point move. The peace deal market has $1,644,301 in USDC traded across its sub-markets. The largest price movement was a 5-point drop in the April 22 market as the deadline closes in.
Iran’s positive review is a tier-1 signal but lacks finality. Traders are weighing the potential for a diplomatic breakthrough against Trump’s hardline stance and recent military actions. Buying YES at 20¢ for an April 22 peace deal offers a 5x return if resolved, but the window is tight.
Watch for official announcements from Iran or intermediaries like Oman and Qatar, which could move markets sharply. Trump’s next move, whether conciliatory or hawkish, will determine direction.
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Trump Announces End Of Military Operations Against Iran| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 40.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 20.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 42% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 61% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 70.5% | — | — | Trade → |
