Iran paraded its missile capabilities through Tehran’s streets as the US-Iran ceasefire approaches its April 22 end. The market for Israel conducting military action against Iran by April 21 sits at 1.7% YES, down from 22% a week ago.
The missile parade complicates the Trump endorsement of an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30, which remains at 100% YES. Meanwhile, Israel military action against Iran odds reflect skepticism, with only a day left for resolution. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 holds at 100% YES, but France is actively urging Hezbollah disarmament.
Volume in the military action market tells the story. Face value is $219,216, but actual USDC traded is $14,633, showing decent liquidity. It takes just $501 to move the price 5 points, making the market susceptible to large trades. The most significant move was a 4-point drop, consistent with bearish sentiment.
The visuals of Iranian missiles on Tehran’s streets signal Tehran’s readiness to retaliate if the ceasefire lapses, raising the probability of regional conflict escalation. For traders, buying YES at 2¢ pays $1 if military action occurs by April 21, a 50x return. It’s a speculative bet with time running out.
Watch for formal statements from the IDF or Hezbollah’s next move. Any shift in Macron’s diplomatic stance on disarmament could also move the current odds.
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Will Trump Endorse An Israeli Ceasefire In Lebanon April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 2.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
