Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi’s talks with Pakistani officials ended without progress. The probability of a US-Iran meeting by April 26 dropped to 10% YES.
Market reaction
Odds for a diplomatic meeting on April 26 fell from 29% to 10% yesterday as traders priced in the lack of results from Islamabad. The market for June 30 ticked up slightly to 7% YES for no qualifying meeting occurring by that date, suggesting traders expect further delays.
Why it matters
The next meeting location market holds at 7% YES for no meeting by June 30. No new venue has been confirmed, and the Islamabad talks produced nothing that would change that.
Trading volume is $27,334 USDC, with only $141 in order book depth needed to move prices 5 points. The market is thin enough that relatively small trades can cause significant price swings.
What to watch
A YES share for an April 26 meeting at 10¢ pays 10x if it resolves YES, but current signals point toward delays. The things that would change this: US delegation movements, statements from Iranian officials, or announcements from the White House or Pakistan confirming new dates or venues.
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Where Will The Next Us Iran Diplomatic Meeting Happen 455| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | 6.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 24 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 25 | 0.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 26 | 9.8% | — | — | Trade → |