Iran has offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. lifts its blockade and ends the ongoing war. The market for Trump announcing the blockade’s end by May 31 sits at 59% YES, down from 72% a day ago.
The Strait of Hormuz traffic market lags behind at 17.5% YES, dipping from 20% yesterday. The gap between the two markets shows traders doubt that even a political announcement would translate into normal shipping flows quickly. The term structure points to expectations of gradual progress, with movement more likely closer to the May 31 deadline.
In the Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement market, odds have fallen from 90% a week ago to 59% now, a 31-point decline that tracks growing doubt about a quick resolution. Daily volume is at $95K USDC. A notable 5-point spike at 3:50 PM shows large orders can still move the price sharply.
Iran’s proposal may be a de-escalation move, but its effect on actual U.S. policy is unclear. Traders buying YES at 59¢ are positioned for a 1.69x return if Trump announces the blockade’s end. The key question for skeptics is whether the U.S. treats Iran’s offer as real leverage or a diplomatic bluff. A major shift in odds would likely require tangible actions, such as U.S. naval movements or a formal White House statement.
Watch for Trump’s next public statement and any CENTCOM updates. Confirmation or rejection of Iran’s offer will move both markets.
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Trump Announces Us Blockade Of Hormuz Lifted| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 59% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
