Iran’s military slammed its own Foreign Minister over Strait of Hormuz reopening claims, and the odds for Iranian military action by April 30 remain at 100% YES on Polymarket.
The market for Iran striking a country by April 30 hasn’t moved from 100% YES. With 12 days left, traders are pricing in certainty of some form of military action.
The market for UK warships passing through the Strait dropped to 8.5% YES, down from 12% yesterday. The decline followed the IRGC’s public dismissal of the Foreign Minister’s statement, and traders are pricing in continued tension rather than any near-term easing.
Trading volume on these markets tells its own story. The Strait of Hormuz market trades $1,412 USDC per day, with only $304 in depth to move prices 5 points. That thin liquidity means small trades can cause outsized price swings, as a 2-point spike at 4:25 PM yesterday showed.
The intra-Iranian discord points to a fractured chain of command, which raises the risk of miscalculation. A YES share in the warships market at 8.5¢ pays $1 if UK warships transit the Strait by April 30, a potential 11.76x return. That bet requires believing in either a rapid diplomatic breakthrough or a misstep that forces military necessity.
Watch for further IRGC public statements or unusual military maneuvers in the coming days. Any new development could move these thin markets fast.
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Iran Military Action Against April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
