Iran might join US peace talks in Pakistan, raising the likelihood of an end to military operations. The probability of Trump announcing a ceasefire by April 21 has dropped to 6.0% YES, down from 36% a week ago.
With 1 day left until resolution, the Iran Operations Announcements market saw a 7-point spike at 4:54 PM before settling back down. Volume is $21,601 actual USDC traded per day, and it takes only $465 to move the price by 5 percentage points. The prospect of peace talks has led traders to reassess whether a formal US-Iran ceasefire announcement could come this quickly.
On the Iran Leadership Status market, the chance of no head of state in Iran by the end of 2026 is also affected. The potential for peace talks points toward leadership stabilization, which slightly decreases the likelihood of a leadership change, though this market remains more stable given its longer time horizon.
At 6.0¢, a YES share pays $1 if Trump announces the end of military operations by April 21, a 25x return. To consider this bet worth taking, you’d have to believe talks will produce a ceasefire announcement within the next 24 hours, which the market clearly prices as unlikely.
Watch for official statements from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi or US intermediaries. Confirmation of talks or a ceasefire would move the market fast.
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