Iran now requires IRGC approval for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The market on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April 30 sits at 64.5% YES, down from 60% yesterday.
Market reaction
Traders responded by selling the April 30 deadline. The April 30 market dropped 10 points, with a $354 move in price driving a sharp 4-point decline yesterday alone. That low cost to move the market points to thin order books, where small trades produce outsized price swings. The May 31 market holds at 87% YES, suggesting traders still expect resolution before June but doubt it happens this month.
Why it matters
The IRGC permission requirement gives Iran direct control over vessel transit through the strait, adding a new layer of friction to any diplomatic timeline for reopening. This complicates negotiations because any resolution now requires the IRGC to explicitly reverse its own mandate. A YES share at 64.5¢ pays $1 if traffic normalizes by April 30, which is essentially a coin flip. For that bet to pay off, traders need to see concrete diplomatic movement or military de-escalation within days.
What to watch
Any signals from the IRGC or CENTCOM about easing restrictions will be the first movers here. Statements from President Trump or allied nations regarding naval deployments would also shift odds. The gap between the April 30 market (50.5%) and the May 31 market (82%) implies traders see roughly a one-month window for resolution, so news that either accelerates or delays talks will hit the April contract hardest.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Kharg Island No Longer Under Iranian Control March 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 3.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 9% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 64.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 87% | — | — | Trade → |
