Iran’s IRGC navy added more mines in the Strait of Hormuz this week, according to Axios. The odds of 80 ships transiting by April 30 have fallen to 5% YES, down from 10% yesterday.
Market reaction
With seven days left until resolution, traders are bearish on transit prospects. The term structure shows no change day-to-day, reinforcing pessimism about a quick resolution. Admiral Brad Cooper and CENTCOM’s actions remain key variables, but mine-clearing progress appears slow so far.
Trading volume
The market’s face value is $12,478 per day, but actual USDC traded is just $794 daily. It takes $940 to shift the price by 5 points, indicating thin market depth. The largest move was a 1-point drop, suggesting traders are cautious but not rushing to adjust positions drastically.
Why it matters
The mine-laying is a direct escalation in a waterway that handles a large share of global oil transit. At 5¢ per YES share, a successful transit bet by April 30 would pay $1, a 20x return. The odds suggest traders doubt conditions will improve within the remaining week.
What to watch
Any announcements from the U.S. Navy or IRGC about changes in transit conditions. Also, potential diplomatic developments that could alter the current blockade status.
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