Iran’s continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the US-Israel conflict has deepened global supply chain disruptions. The market for Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by May 15 is at 15.5% YES, up slightly from 14% twenty-four hours ago.
Market reaction
The May 31 market for Trump lifting the US blockade of Hormuz fell sharply to 50.5% YES, down from 58% a day ago. Traders see little chance of a quick resolution. The largest single move was a 12-point spike in the May 31 market, which settled back down, suggesting volatile positioning driven by speculation rather than concrete diplomatic progress.
The Strait of Hormuz traffic market has $1,000,111 in face value per day but only $184,621 in actual USDC. It takes $37,667 to move the price by 5 points, enough to absorb moderate institutional trades but still vulnerable to large orders. The Trump blockade market has $554,169 in face value and $322,748 in real trades, requiring $16,155 for a 5-point move.
Why it matters
The closure affects not just oil and LNG but also critical minerals, with broader economic consequences. At 15.5¢, a YES bet on Hormuz traffic normalizing by May 15 pays $1, a 6.5x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe in a dramatic diplomatic breakthrough within 16 days, which is hard to square with current tensions.
What to watch
CENTCOM operational changes or a Trump statement reversing the current posture would be the most direct catalysts. Any movement by Iran’s parliament hinting at a softened stance on military control over the Strait would also warrant a reevaluation of current positions.
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Strait Of Hormuz Traffic Returns To Normal May 15| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15 | 15.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | 50.5% | — | — | Trade → |
