## Market Snapshot
In the market for Iran closing its airspace by May 8, the current pricing is 14.5% YES, down from 24% in the last 24 hours. The probability of Iran’s regime falling by June 30 is currently priced at 6.5% YES, a slight decrease from recent levels.
## Key Takeaways
– The prolonged internet blackout in Iran suggests an environment of heightened internal control consistent with scenarios where airspace closure could occur. – Market pricing indicates participants see an increased probability of regime instability due to extended unrest and government control measures. – The internet shutdown’s continuation reflects severe measures by Iranian authorities, consistent with scenarios of governmental instability.
## Article Body
Iran’s internet blackout has entered its 65th consecutive day, as reported by NetBlocks. This extended period of digital isolation comes in the wake of Israeli and United States military strikes on Iran and is part of the broader context of the 2025–2026 protests in the country. Iranian authorities have maintained a significant reduction in internet connectivity, reportedly to just 4% of normal levels following the February strikes. This blackout is described as the longest global internet shutdown recorded, indicating an escalated state of internal repression. The Iranian government has implemented selective internet access for certain users and businesses while planning permanent restrictions on foreign platforms amidst ongoing conflicts with the US and Israel.
## Market Interpretation
The news of Iran’s continued internet blackout appears to be supportive of a YES outcome for scenarios involving increased internal conflict and defensive measures like airspace closure. The impact on the market for Iran closing its airspace by May 8 is considered moderate, with the current odds reflecting a decrease from previous levels. Additionally, the ongoing unrest and government measures suggest a moderate impact on the probability of regime change, indicating market participants may view the situation as conducive to potential instability.
## What to Watch
Observers should monitor any announcements from Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization regarding airspace status, particularly any NOTAMs that could suggest a shift towards closure. Developments in the protests and any signs of increased military activity or government instability could further influence market perceptions of regime change probabilities. Additionally, watch for potential international reactions or diplomatic engagements that may alter the current trajectory of conflict and internal repression in Iran.
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Iran Closes Its Airspace| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8 | 14.5% | — | — | View market → |
| May 31 | 39.5% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 6.5% | — | — | View market → |
